Real-time management of berth allocation with stochastic arrival and handling times

In this research we study the berth allocation problem (BAP) in real time as disruptions occur. In practice, the actual arrival times and handling times of the vessels deviate from their expected or estimated values, which can disrupt the original berthing plan and potentially make it infeasible. We consider a given baseline berthing schedule, and solve the BAP on a rolling planning horizon with the objective to minimize the total realized costs of the updated berthing schedule as the actual arrival and handling time data is revealed in real time. The uncertainty in the data is modeled by making appropriate assumptions about the probability distributions of the uncertain parameters based on past data. We present an optimization based recovery algorithm based on set partitioning method and a smart greedy algorithm to reassign the vessels in the events of disruption. Our research problem derives from the real world issues faced by the SAQR port, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE, where the berthing plans are regularly disrupted owing to a high degree of uncertainty in information. A simulation study is carried out to assess the solution performance and efficiency of the proposed algorithms, in which the baseline schedule is chosen as the solution of the deterministic berth allocation problem without accounting for any uncertainty. Results indicate that the proposed algorithms can significantly reduce the total realized costs of the berthing schedule as compared to the ongoing practice of reassigning vessels at the port.